‘Potent Storm System’ to bring rain; snow at 1,500-2,000 ft.

From the National Weather Service in Eureka:

.SYNOPSIS…
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COUNTIES TODAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD
FRONT. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH SNOW LEVELS
FALLING TO AROUND 2000 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION…
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE NORTH COAST TODAY
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE CAPE NEAR THE COAST. BY
THIS EVENING MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN NEAR CRESCENT CITY AS A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL SLIDE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES WHERE A HALF INCH TO INCH
OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH…AROUND 6-7K FEET.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL INVADE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE FRONT
RESULTING IN LOWERING SNOW LEVELS BEGINNING THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FEET. A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM AND COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NEAR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 3500
FT IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. AN APPROXIMATELY 12 HR LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SECOND LOW
WILL INFLUENCE LAND…POSSIBLY REQUIRING ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT WITH QPF SUGGESTING AROUND 2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS…AND GREATER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER THE GFS. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY…AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A WIDE
SPREAD WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LEANING TOWARD A FURTHER WEST
TRACK RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST. THE MOST RECENT ECMWF IS ALSO
DRIER THEN THE GFS.

A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TILTED RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
UPPER LOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IF THIS RIDGE DEVELOPS AS THE MODELS INDICATE IT WOULD RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY FOG WOULD THEN BE LIKELY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RPA

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