Weather Update

Raw frp, the NWS in Eureka:

.SYNOPSIS…A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN
TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY FOLLOWED BY RAIN AND SOME VERY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY…BUT MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION…SATELLITE SHOWS A DISTURBANCE OFF THE WEST COAST
THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, SO
KEPT WITH THE THINKING OF LOW POPS IN THE MORNING THAT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS STILL SEEM TO HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN MOVING IN THIS
EVENING, MAYBE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN FORECAST, BUT DID NOT SEE THE
NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS AREA. WIDESPREAD
QPF AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM 0.25-0.5 INCHES, BUT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOTTOM END OF THAT RANGE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MENDOCINO AND TRINITY COUNTIES. HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN IN THE TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS. SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN A CONCERN. THE MODELS SHOW ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO SOME OF THE HIGHER PASS
LEVELS. THE NAM STILL WAS WAY TOO LOW WITH THE SNOW LEVELS, SO
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST AND THE NEW GFS, WHICH
HAD THE HIGHEST SNOW LEVELS. THIS SEEMED MORE APPROPRIATE GIVEN IT
IS APPROACHING LATE APRIL AND IT TAKES A LOT TO GET LOW SNOW
LEVELS THIS TIME OF YEAR. REGARDLESS, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THOSE
PASSES. ABOUT 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 5,000 FEET
TONIGHT. THIS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY MAJOR IMPACTS, BUT THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL STILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THE DISTURBANCE
AND ITS PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING, ALLOWING DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN FOR THAT AFTERNOON.
CLEAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG FORMATION
IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. THIS WILL BURN OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY MORE DRY WEATHER DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
THREATEN THE AREA WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING REMAINS HIGH. STROZ

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