Rain today, hail and thunderstorms Thursday

Looks like rain today. Thursday we may see thunderstorms and small hail. As for Saturday, there’s uncertainty.

Raw from the NWS in Eureka:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA…RETRANSMIT
625 AM PDT WED APR 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS…A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW CALIFORNIA TODAY.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AS THIS FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THU

&&

.DISCUSSION…MORNING IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE IMPENDING COLD
FRONT PUSHING S TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING THIS MORNING IN THE N AND SPREADING S THROUGH THE
DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL START INITIALLY AROUND 4000FT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, THEY WILL FALL QUICKLY AS THE FRONT TAKES HOLD. BY THU
MORNING SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AS LOW AS 1200FT. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WILL FALL AHEAD OF OR WITH THE FRONT, SO OPTED NOT TO GO
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, DUE TO THE LIONS SHARE OF THE SNOW
FALLING ABOVE 3500FT. HOWEVER, BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELLERS SHOULD BE
AWARE AND READY FOR WINTER CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR LITTLE ACCUMULATION TO AROUND 1500FT
BY THU MORNING. PASSES WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
THIS EVENT. WILL LIKELY NOT NEED A WINTER WX ADV DUE TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING ISOLATED AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE MAIN
THREAT ON THU WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DRIVING HAZARDS FOR AREA ROADWAYS ON THU. THE
BEST BET FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AS THIS
WILL BE LOW TOP CONVECTION AND NOT DRIVEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY DAYTIME
HEATING. WHILE NEG LI`S EXTEND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA, POS CAPE
VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY STEEP EITHER. THAT SAID, KEPT THE THUNDERSTORMS
AS IS IN THE FORECAST AND ACTUALLY EXTENDED THEM IN TIME DUE TO
THE PARAMETERS BEING EQUAL FOR ABOUT AN 18 HOUR BLOCK. ALSO,
NCEP/SPC HAS NW CALIFORNIA IN THE THUNDERLINE. ALL THAT LENDS TO
HOLDING ON TO THE CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.
MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO PULL BACK ON THE FAIR WEATHER FOR SAT AS THE
STORM TRACK BECOMES A BIT FASTER, AND THE RIDGE THAT WAS EXPECTED
TO BUILD BECOMES A LITTLE DIRTY. MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT SOME
WARM FRONTAL RAIN FOR SAT. HOWEVER, THIS IS JUST IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL CYCLES. SO, DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE
FORECAST AND BUMPED UP THE POPS A HAIR, BUT DID NOT GO FOR THE
DRAMATIC SHIFT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD TREND BACK TO A NICE
SAT. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST AND
BEYOND. BFG

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