Weather Update

Looks like lots of rain, but starting next week things may dry up.

Here’s the raw “discussion” from the National Weather Service in Eureka:

FXUS66 KEKA 241555 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
855 AM PDT THU MAR 24 2011

.UPDATE…A MORNING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MADE AS A
RESULT OF SPOTTER CALLS TO THE OFFICE REPORTING LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAN THE FORECAST HAD REFLECTED. PREVIOUS SNOW LEVELS WERE DOWN TO
AROUND 3000 FT WHILE SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING TO AROUND 1300 FT IN
AREAS. THEREFORE THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED DOWN TO 2000 FOOT SNOW
LEVELS FOR TODAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY BE DRIVEN DOWN LOWER IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. BFG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 600 AM PDT THU MAR 24 2011/

SYNOPSIS…A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NW CALIFORNIA FROM
THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

DISCUSSION…A FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING FROM N-S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST IS BRINGING MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS BAND WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION 5TO BECOMING
GENERALLY SHOWERY AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE
MODERATE RAIN RETURNING EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED
AS EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS DID RISE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
BETWEEN 3500-4000 FT BUT HAVE FALLEN BACK TO JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET
THIS MORNING. THE SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL
SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY AS A COOLER AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST ATTM. THOUGH THE REDWOOD
COAST HAS ESCAPED THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN THUS FAR WE ARE NOW
EXPERIENCING ONSHORE FLOW AND ARE SEEING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS
THIS AM. S OF THE CAPE WILL BE IN THE BULLS EYE OF THE MOISTURE
STREAM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER THE LAST 24 HRS MENDOCINO COUNTY
HAS ALREADY HAD A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PRONE AREAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT 2 SYSTEMS, TOTALING UP TO ANOTHER 3 TO 4
INCHES BY THE TIME ITS ALL SAID AND DONE. WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AIMED AT MENDOCINO COUNTY, A FEW HYDRO CONCERNS CONTINUE
AND ARE COVERED IN THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW.

IN TERMS OF CONVECTION WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEMS…WE ARE SEEING
SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED OFF SHORE ATTM. THE FORECAST
DOES INDICATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING OVER
ALL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE REGION BEING
ON THE LEFT FLANK OF THE JET, WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS FORECASTED TO
BE IN THE 150KT RANGE. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING INTO THE COAST AND
THE GENERAL NEGATIVE TILT LEADING TO ASSOCIATED ENHANCED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF CONVECTION TO ALL COASTAL AREAS.
NCEP/SPC HAS THE AREA WITHIN THEIR THUNDER LINE.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING WITH A QUICK DOSE OF
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AND MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING ANOTHER SYSTEM
FOR SUNDAY. THEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT THROUGH MON, AND
MON AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF THE DRYING. FURTHER
ON THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. MKN

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