More storms coming

Looks like we’ll get a break this evening and tomorrow. Then rain will continue.

Raw weather “discussion” from the National Weather Service in Eureka:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
410 AM PDT MON MAR 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS…THE WET AND COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WET PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST OF TWO LARGE STORM SYSTEMS APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION…THE PERSISTENT COMPLEX LOW JUST OFF THE COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. AMOUNTS THOUGH
LOOK TO BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND ONLY LOOKING FOR 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SO HAVE DROPPED SNOW ADVISORY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER STRONG LOW MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
START IN MENDOCINO COUNTY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH THE SNOW
LEVEL NEAR 3000 FEET. THE LOW IS TAPPING INTO PWATS OF ABOUT 0.5
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT 700MB WINDS
NEAR 40KT SO GOOD MOISTURE FLUX. ALSO SFC LOW NEAR 998 MB ROTATES
TO ABOUT 170 NM WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO BY 06Z WED PRODUCING UPSLOPE
LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS INTO EASTERN TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES.
CONTINUED THE WATCH BUT STARTED IN A LITTLE EARLIER AT 02Z WED WITH
START OF UPSLOPE WINDS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM IN THE 7 TO
12 INCH RANGE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES. RIGHT ON ITS
HEELS AND FOLLOWING THE SAME TRACK IS YET ANOTHER LOW DROPPING OFF
THE COAST THUR. SINCE THERE IS VERY LITTLE BREAK IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS…I EXTENDED THE WATCH OUT UNTIL THUR EVE. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR BOTH SYSTEMS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 20 INCHES
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN EASTERN TRINITY AND MENDO COUNTIES IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. SNOW LEVELS STILL NEAR 3000 FT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE 1-2.5 INCH RANGE.

MODEL DIFFERENCE SHOWING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS BOTH
GFS AND GEM SHOW S/W RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE FRI WHILE EC HAS ANOTHER
LOW APPROACHING. ALL MODELS CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE GOA LATER INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH TIMING IS DIFFERENT. GFS
AND GEM SIMILAR IN BRING WARM FRONTAL RAINS LATE SAT AND THEN COLD
FRONT THRU SUN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY…LEFT 50-60 PERCENT POPS.
DEAN

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