A lot more rain coming

Here’s the raw weather “discussion” from the National Weather Service in Eureka. We could get one to 3 inches of rain between now and into Friday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
835 AM PDT THU MAR 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS…THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.UPDATE…MINOR UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF THE NW CA COAST WILL PUSH
THROUGH THIS MORNING. SHOWERS…WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STARTING TO MOVE INLAND WITH SNOW FALLING DOWN TO 2500 FT. JCA

&&

——————————————————————–
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 350 AM PDT THU MAR 17 2011/

DISCUSSION…NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE COAST WITH
ISOLATED LIGHTNING. MODELS TOO SLOW ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE
AND JUST USED SATELLITE MOVEMENT OF ABOUT 30KT TO MOVE IT INLAND
THIS MORNING WITH THE BACK EDGE THROUGH BY ABOUT 8 AM. BEHIND IT
THERE WILL STILL BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR REST OF THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. NOT LOOKING FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE 3000 FEET
RANGE AND SO SHOULD GET SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE MTN PASSES
LIKE HIGHWAY 36 IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM AS
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE
DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS ONES…AND WITH
PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES…HIGH QPF IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. LATE THU
THROUGH FRI…COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN AND EQUIVALENT HEAVY
SNOW. MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM AND WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADE
WATCH TO A WARNING. MADE A MINOR CHANGE IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND RAMPED THEM UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS FRONT
APPROACHES WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS COASTAL RIDGES.

MODELS STILL CONSISTENT IN THE LARGE UPPER LOW DROPPING STRAIGHT
SOUTH…STAYING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST. DESPITE THE
LOW NOT REACHING THE COAST…THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL SPILL INTO NW CA. SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 1500 FT BY FRI
NIGHT. PRECIP WILL HANG AROUND AS W TO SW ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
AROUND THE LOW…LEADING TO MORE ACCUMULATION. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UNDER THE COLD
AIR BEGINNING FRI.

OVER THE WEEKEND…MODELS STILL HAVE A SECONDARY LOW SPINNING UP
SOUTH OF THE MAIN LOW…AND SWINGING TOWARD SF BAY ON SUN. THIS
WOULD TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
WHILE KEEPING WINDY CONDITIONS AROUND LONGER. MORE CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION SO HAVE NOW INCORPORATED INTO FORECAST AND INCREASED
POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF THE EJECTION OF THIS LOW COMPLEX IS
STILL A QUESTION WITH GFS BEING THE SLOWEST BUT PROBABLY IN THE SUN
NIGHT-MON NIGHT TIME FRAME. JCA/DEAN

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