Weather update: Rain, hail, lightning

Rain, hail, some lightning and possible snow on mountain passes.

Raw “discussion” from National Weather Service in Eureka:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
620 AM PDT WED MAR 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS…THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SERIES OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS
WILL START OUT HIGH…BUT DROP BELOW PASS LEVEL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE…
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SMALL HAIL TO THE FORECAST. CURRENT
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME STRONGER CELLS OFFSHORE THAT ARE LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 504 AM PDT WED MAR 16 2011/

.DISCUSSION…MAIN FCST CONCERNS TODAY ARE CONVECTION AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AND COLD TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
AREA WILL PROVIDE A DECENT ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS AND SOME OF
THEM ARE MOVING ONSHORE ALREADY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE WATERS. THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO AROUND MIDDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
OVERHEAD. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CURRENTLY OUT STILL LOOKS
GOOD…NSSL OBSERVED SNOW LEVELS ARE SHOWING SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND 4000 FT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TO THE UPPER TRINITY RIVER OVER 3000 FT THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE CONTINUING TO RISE WHILE MOST OF
THE SMALLER ONES HAVE CRESTED AND ARE ON THEIR WAY DOWN. FORECASTS
SHOW THE MAIN STEM RIVERS GETTING WITHIN A COUPLE FEET OF ACTION
STAGE SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FOR A BRIEF
BREAK. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHICH BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF
RAIN AND SNOW. FOR NOW QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH
TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL…BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT
MORE CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FT…ALTHOUGH THE 06Z
GFS BRINGS THEM DOWN AROUND 1500 FT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED…BUT FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE AN ANOMALY.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 3000 FT FALLING
TO AROUND 2000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS PERSISTENTLY SHOWING
A SLOWER TIMING ON THE SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANTLY MORE QPF. BEHIND
THIS FRONT MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SO KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS IN PLACE AND MADE FEW
CHANGES. THIS THREAT IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS RE- EVALUATE AS THE EVENT NEARS. MKK

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