Monthly Archives: June 2011

Front page 6.29.11

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Another beautiful day in paradise

Translation: It’s going to be a beautiful day. On Tuesday and Wednesday it may rain, but next weekend will be sunny and warm. – Jack

Raw from the NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
348 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS…GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NW
CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION…SAT IMAGES THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE
STRATUS AROUND THAN YESTERDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY
AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE AREA CLEAR BY NOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS.

MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND MORE CONSISTENT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE NAM AND THE ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SO MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. INLAND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAKING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRINITY ALPS AND THE YOLLA BOLLAS AS THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY OVER INLAND AREAS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF…HOWEVER I STILL
THINK THEY ARE ON THE HIGH END SO TRIMMED THEM BACK. KEPT STORMS TOTALS
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO A HALF IN
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WITH TUESDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON BY NEXT WEEKEND.

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Humboldt Bar Webcam

Check out the new Humboldt Bar Webcam.

From the NWS:

Conditions at the entrance to Humboldt Bay Harbor can now be checked online by going to http://www.weather.gov/eureka/marine and navigating to the new webcam made available through collaboration between the National Weather Service, the United States Coast Guard, and the Humboldt Bay Harbor, Conservation and Recreation District.

The Humboldt Bay Bar Cam is pointing towards the south jetty from the north jetty so it shows much of the entrance and bar channels. The images are ten seconds apart and are updated every ten minutes. It is important to remember that waves can be bigger than those captured on the Bar Cam, and that waves can suddenly get larger due to changes in tide and the arrival of larger sets of waves. Mariners are reminded that the Bar Cam is just one more piece of information for making navigation decisions and they should not rely on it solely to determine if the harbor entrance is safe to transit. Check for latest Bar conditions by calling the Coast Guard using your marine VHF radio on channel 22A.

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‘General troughiness’

I’ll confess that sometimes I have trouble translating the NWS “discussion” of local weather. My interpretation of this morning’s discussion is that there’s a big ole layer of fog reaching as high as 2,000 feet. In the afternoon, wind may blow this fog away, giving us sunshine. But it will be gusty and cool. Right? – Jack

Raw from the NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
425 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS…DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CAUSE
INCREASING NORTH WINDS…LEADING TO MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION…PER LATEST SATELLITE PIC…TROUGH AXIS IS SET TO
SWING THROUGH NW CA THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER IS AT ITS
MAXIMUM DEPTH EARLY THIS MORNING (AROUND 2000 FT)…AND SHOULD MIX
OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS READINGS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH.
GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL HANG ON ALONG THE WEST COAST AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE E PAC. THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS LEADING TO SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH FRI AS THE MARINE
LAYER MIXES OUT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
SAT…CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN…LEADING TO A
RETURN TO MORE STRATUS. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SUN AND MON
AHEAD OF A BROADER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN
POOR AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW…BUT OVERALL HUNG ONTO SCHC POPS
FOR MTN -SHRA/TSTMS TUE AND WED DUE TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. JCA

&&

.AVIATION…MARINE CLOUDS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE LITTORAL ZONE ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING BUT A LITTLE MORE MIXING DUE TO A PASSING UPPER
TROUGH HAS ALLOWED CIGS TO RISE SLIGHTLY…ESPECIALLY AT KCEC. THE
TROUGH WILL PASS BY THE REGION TODAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED MIXING ALONG THE COAST. THUS HIGHER CIGS AND POSSIBLY EVEN
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINTAINED.

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Front page 6.22.11

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Fog

I translate this as meaning it will remain foggy on the coast through at least tomorrow morning. – Jack

Raw from the NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
920 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS…DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS.

&&

.UPDATE…VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS FG/STRATUS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE
REDWOOD COAST AND COASTAL WATERS WITH CLR SKIES ELSEWHERE. ISSUED A
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FG AND LOWER SKY OVER THE MENDOCINO COAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION…ISSUED AT 415 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2011…AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY
SWING THROUGH THE PACNW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BE COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND A DEEPENING OF
THE MARINE LAYER.

STRATUS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST AROUND 1000 FT THICK…AND
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. PATCHY FG/DZ IS POSSIBLE UNDER THIS PATTERN LATE AT
NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING…WITH THE MARINE LAYER AT ITS DEEPEST
THU MORNING (AROUND 2000 FT) WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. STRATUS MAY
CREEP INTO WESTERN TRINITY COUNTY WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LAYER
WHICH WILL CERTAINLY INHIBIT MAX TEMPS. CU BUILDUPS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES…WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TRINITY ALPS AND POINTS TO THE N AND E.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND SPC…HAVE DECIDED
TO INCLUDE ISO T MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS…CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT A FEW TSTMS WILL IGNITE OVER THE HORN OF TRINITY COUNTY…BUT
THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS…HIGHS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY
THAN ON TUESDAY…COOLING ANOTHER 5 OR MORE DEGREES ON THU.
HEIGHTS REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY…BUT TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO
WARM AS A MEAN TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE W COAST. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING S FROM THE GULF OF AK THIS
WEEKEND MAINTAINING A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE REGION CONTINUING THE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK…GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AMPLITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THIS TROUGH
IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN…BUT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE BEGINNING LATE MON. JCA

.AVIATION…MARINE CLOUDS MAKING MORE OF A PRESENCE THIS MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. HI RES FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER TODAY LASTING LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. THUS PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO CIGS AND VIS COULD LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOME VFR BREAKS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE INLAND AREAS
WILL REMAIN VFR.

.MARINE…TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND NEAR COAST REGION…AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES ON THU AS A
THERMAL LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY…WITH A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE GRADIENT ON SAT.

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Front page 6.8.11

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