Looks like we'll have an entire week of rain, with wind increasing late Tuesday. Might be a good week to stay inside, or go see a movie. (Photo is of the box office at the Mill Creek Cinema in McKinleyville.)
Raw "discussion" from the National Weather Service in Eureka.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
430 AM PST MON FEB 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TWO WEAK FRONTS WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A
STRONGER STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO THE COAST.
&&
DISCUSSION...MORNING WEATHER SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST
TO NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH COAST. AS OF 4AM ONLY 0.02
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT EKA AS A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ORCA BORDER. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME UPGLIDE
OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN PRECIPITATION RATES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE
TO THE PASSING OF A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
WEATHER OCCURS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEFORE ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT
STORM THAT WILL PROVIDE MUCH MORE PUNCH THAN TODAYS. LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON A 982MB LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 40N 130W WITH A WARM FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND OVER THE CWA PROVIDING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS OFF THE COAST. TOWARD TUESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
WITH SOUTH WINDS RAMPING UP TO GALE FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
ALONG WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AND
MENDOCINO COAST. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVER FAVORED AREAS
SUCH TRINIDAD HEAD AND CRESCENT CITY. STRONGER GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY
ALONG THE COASTAL HILL COMMUNITIES SUCH AS KNEELAND AND FICKLE HILL.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING PRECIPITATION BULLSEYES OVER
THE FORT BRAGG AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THOSE AREAS AND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 OR EVEN 3 INCHES
ACROSS OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SPOTS SUCH AS THE HONEYDEW AREA.
GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...EARLIER THOUGHTS OF TRAPPED COLD AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW. FREE AIR SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO
5K TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALTHOUGH AREAS ACROSS TRINITY VALLEY MAY SEE
SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS...THE LOWER VALLEY COMMUNITIES SHOULD SEE
ALL RAIN. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS HAVE OPTED TO
ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
(SPSEKA) RATHER THAN ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET IS HIGH. USING A CONSERVATIVE 8 TO 1
RATIO WOULD STILL YIELD ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY
SO THE LIKELY HOOD OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PASS LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING AND STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND THE
RIDGE QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN AS THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.Rain, rain and, coming soon, wind and more rain.
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